by Simona Mocuta | Oct 5, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Softer labor market eases Fed angst Even before the September employment data was released on Friday, downward revisions to the PCE price deflator helped alleviate the sense of urgency for an October Fed hike that had previously permeated the market. After the labor...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 31, 2026 | Uncategorized
Looks like we have work to do There might not have been many “tier 1” macro data releases this week, but there was a top-tier event: the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium. It was Chair Warsh’s first opportunity to deliver longer-form remarks since taking the helm at the...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 17, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
More reassuring inflation news One month never makes a trend, which is why June’s excellent inflation report had to be read primarily as relief after a stretch of elevated readings. Two months will not make a trend, either, but they represent a growing body of...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 10, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
No pre-emption needed Last week we noted that the three dissents in favor of an immediate rate hike all implicitly viewed that hike as a pre-emptive move aimed to avoid larger/faster hikes down the road. This week’s employment update says that no pre-emption is...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 4, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The dissents tell the story The second FOMC meeting under the leadership of Chair Warsh was more edgy and triggered more market volatility. There was no change to the Fed Funds rate (still at the 3.50-3.75% range) but there were three dissents in favor of an immediate...
