by Simona Mocuta | May 4, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Fed on hold as outlook turns more binary The April Fed meeting was not about doing but about signaling. The decision on rates was always a given: don’t do anything while you await clarity on what you might have to do down the line. So, the Fed Funds rate stays at...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 20, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Better Iran news supports our house view By far the biggest news this week was the Friday announcement of the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz to commercial traffic. It would be unwise to take this as the end of uncertainty, and we do not. Nevertheless, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 13, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Stagflation signals The first inflation report since the start of the Iran war showed the anticipated stark rise in headline inflation alongside contained core inflation. Overall consumer prices rose 0.9% MoM, lifting the headline inflation rate by 0.9 percentage...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 6, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
What’s going on with the US labor data? The US labor data appears to us increasingly perplexing. The striking volatility in monthly payrolls data over the last several months is hard to explain even in the context of the government shutdown, methodology...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 30, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Another spring, another global shock, another uncertainty spike Recent major shocks to the global economy have all clustered around the March–April timeframe (Covid, Ukraine war, regional bank crisis, tariffs). This complicates the assessment of the economic impact....
