Consumers Do Not Like Tariffs!

Consumers Do Not Like Tariffs!

It is rare that in a payroll week the main focus of the conversation is not the US labor market, but tariffs are certainly stealing the thunder nowadays. The week began with imminent 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada…which were then both delayed for 30 days. 10%...
Strong Economy, Cautious Fed

Strong Economy, Cautious Fed

The US economy grew 2.3% saar (q/q, seasonally adjusted annualized) in Q4, slightly below expectations. What was surprising was not the top line number, but the details. Consumer spending was exceedingly strong, equipment investment surprisingly soft, and inventory...
Misleading Strength?

Misleading Strength?

Last month, we said that the December inflation report “argued vigilance, not panic, on inflation”. And we concluded that three rate cuts in 2025 still made sense as a baseline expectation. That remained our view even in the aftermath of the hawkish December dot plot...
Misleading Payrolls Strength?

Misleading Payrolls Strength?

For anyone who was hoping to ease into the macro data releases of the new year, the December employment report certainly did not offer such opportunity. Reported job gains totaled 256k, far above the 165k consensus. Revisions to the prior two months were...