by Simona Mocuta | Aug 17, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
More reassuring inflation news One month never makes a trend, which is why June’s excellent inflation report had to be read primarily as relief after a stretch of elevated readings. Two months will not make a trend, either, but they represent a growing body of...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 10, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
No pre-emption needed Last week we noted that the three dissents in favor of an immediate rate hike all implicitly viewed that hike as a pre-emptive move aimed to avoid larger/faster hikes down the road. This week’s employment update says that no pre-emption is...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 4, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The dissents tell the story The second FOMC meeting under the leadership of Chair Warsh was more edgy and triggered more market volatility. There was no change to the Fed Funds rate (still at the 3.50-3.75% range) but there were three dissents in favor of an immediate...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 13, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
During his first press conference as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh was asked about the stance of monetary policy: is the Fed restrictive or not? He wisely answered that the answer to that question is “nuanced” and pointed to housing as a sector where current interest rates...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 6, 2026 | Economic Perspectives, Uncategorized
A reminder and more data questions We’ve spent much of the last couple of months highlighting the contradictory signals from different parts of the labor market, arguing that while the narrative of labor market stabilization is well supported, the narrative of a...
