by Simona Mocuta | Mar 9, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Renewed labor market jitters We had always viewed the seemingly strong January payroll number with a big dose of skepticism. The February update, which showed a surprising 92k decline in employment (versus the 55k gain expected by consensus), suggests this was wise....
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 2, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 23, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Slowdown into year-end Following torrid growth in the second and third quarters, real GDP growth slowed markedly in the fourth under the combined influence of the government shutdown and a greatly diminished contribution from trade. Real GDP grew at a seasonally...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 17, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
It is rare that the two marquee macro reports for the US economy—the employment and inflation data—are released in the same week. They were this week, and, at least on the surface, offered divergent signals on the state of the economy and the desired monetary policy...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 2, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The Fed signals caution with two dissents for cuts Dovish hold, hawkish nomination? As widely anticipated, the FOMC held the Fed Funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% at the January meeting. Still, the decision was not without some surprises, the most important of which was...
