by Simona Mocuta | Feb 4, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The US economy grew 2.3% saar (q/q, seasonally adjusted annualized) in Q4, slightly below expectations. What was surprising was not the top line number, but the details. Consumer spending was exceedingly strong, equipment investment surprisingly soft, and inventory...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 20, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Last month, we said that the December inflation report “argued vigilance, not panic, on inflation”. And we concluded that three rate cuts in 2025 still made sense as a baseline expectation. That remained our view even in the aftermath of the hawkish December dot plot...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 14, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
For anyone who was hoping to ease into the macro data releases of the new year, the December employment report certainly did not offer such opportunity. Reported job gains totaled 256k, far above the 165k consensus. Revisions to the prior two months were...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 17, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The last inflation report before year-end cemented market expectations of another Fed rate cut at the December 18 meeting. This had long been our view, even as doubts grew around its likelihood following the election results.This is not to say that this was...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 9, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
There was a lot of anxious anticipation ahead of the November employment report given this was supposed to provide a cleaner view of the labor market health following a very weak weather-distorted October report. A weak print could have reignited concerns about the...
