by Simona Mocuta | Jun 1, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
K-shaped to the max! The phenomenon of divergent performance across consumer segments (the so-called “K-shaped economy”) is intensifying. Aggregate data on consumer finances continue to show a robust picture. Debt service ratios have risen from pandemic “super lows”,...
by Simona Mocuta | May 18, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Hotter inflation prints reignite rate hike debate There is no denying that the April inflation data came in pretty hot. Consumer price inflation accelerated another half a percentage point to 3.8% YoY, the highest read since May 2023. Much of this reflected ongoing...
by Simona Mocuta | May 11, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Better labor market news We can easily outline two very different narratives around the US labor market, but it is fair to say that last week’s data flow was more supportive of the constructive view. Payrolls rose by a much better than expected 115k in April, and the...
by Simona Mocuta | May 4, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Fed on hold as outlook turns more binary The April Fed meeting was not about doing but about signaling. The decision on rates was always a given: don’t do anything while you await clarity on what you might have to do down the line. So, the Fed Funds rate stays at...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 20, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Better Iran news supports our house view By far the biggest news this week was the Friday announcement of the reopening of the Straits of Hormuz to commercial traffic. It would be unwise to take this as the end of uncertainty, and we do not. Nevertheless, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 13, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Stagflation signals The first inflation report since the start of the Iran war showed the anticipated stark rise in headline inflation alongside contained core inflation. Overall consumer prices rose 0.9% MoM, lifting the headline inflation rate by 0.9 percentage...
