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Current Data Less Relevant Amid Changes

The February inflation data was, on the margin, better than expected, and so was the January JOLTS report. However, both data points have diminished relevance amid the onslaught of policy changes—tariffs and government layoffs—that have the potential to shift the...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain?

Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain?

Amid a slew of disappointing data releases and fever-pitch anxiety over tariff policy and DOGE actions, the February jobs report offered a welcome reprieve and a signal of resilience. It may not be...

Neither Invincible, Nor Broken

Neither Invincible, Nor Broken

We have spent much of the last two months (including in a recent piece here) defending our increasingly out-of-consensus call for three Fed rate cuts in 2025. A series of recent data disappointments...

Inflation Ebb and Flow

Inflation Ebb and Flow

The CPI inflation report for January came in much hotter than expected, but there were enough oddities in the details to argue for a more balanced interpretation. First, the bad news: overall prices...

Misleading Strength?
Misleading Strength?

Last month, we said that the December inflation report “argued vigilance, not panic, on inflation”. And we concluded that three rate cuts in 2025 still made sense as a baseline expectation. That remained our view even in the aftermath of the hawkish December dot plot...

Misleading Payrolls Strength?
Misleading Payrolls Strength?

For anyone who was hoping to ease into the macro data releases of the new year, the December employment report certainly did not offer such opportunity. Reported job gains totaled 256k, far above the 165k consensus. Revisions to the prior two months were...

Webinars