by Simona Mocuta | Apr 6, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
What’s going on with the US labor data? The US labor data appears to us increasingly perplexing. The striking volatility in monthly payrolls data over the last several months is hard to explain even in the context of the government shutdown, methodology...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 30, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Another spring, another global shock, another uncertainty spike Recent major shocks to the global economy have all clustered around the March–April timeframe (Covid, Ukraine war, regional bank crisis, tariffs). This complicates the assessment of the economic impact....
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 23, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
We just don’t know This was a central bank “tour de force” kind of week, with considerable divergence in reactions to the Iran war from the various monetary policy makers around the world. We would characterize the Fed as slightly hawkish in its assessment of impact...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 16, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Softer growth, hotter inflation signals Revisions to Q4 GDP delivered a softer read on consumer spending. This was not particularly surprising; in fact, it had been the previously reported resilience in services spending that seemed odd to us given tepid labor market...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 9, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Renewed labor market jitters We had always viewed the seemingly strong January payroll number with a big dose of skepticism. The February update, which showed a surprising 92k decline in employment (versus the 55k gain expected by consensus), suggests this was wise....
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 2, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...
