by Simona Mocuta | Jun 2, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Unsurprisingly, US macro data continues to send mixed messages. Consumer sentiment improved following tariff relief, but personal spending cooled as consumers took a break following a torrid spending month in March. The labor market appears Unsurprisingly, US macro...
by Simona Mocuta | May 27, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
It has been clear for a while that the 2025 spring home buying season was going to be rather uninspiring. Additional data this week confirmed this assessment. Admittedly, new home sales surprised positively in April with sales at 743k annualized, but this was largely...
by Simona Mocuta | May 19, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Both overall and core (excluding food and energy) consumer prices rose by 0.2% MoM. This allowed the headline inflation rate to ease to 2.3% YoY, while the core inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.8% YoY. These figures are the lowest since early 2021. However,...
by Simona Mocuta | May 12, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
We maintain our call for three cuts this year—75 bp worth of cuts—but we have pushed the first cut from June to July. Fed Is Attentively on Hold Sometimes, when things are just too complicated, the decision becomes simpler: do nothing, wait. That’s where the Fed...
by Simona Mocuta | May 5, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The US economy contracted at a 0.3% seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) pace in the first quarter, the first such decline since the start of 2022. Given the massive crosscurrents at play, the outcome was impressively close to consensus expectations (-0.2% saar). It...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 14, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Last week, we said that our “no recession” call was hanging by a thread amid the tariff onslaught. This week, a new lifeline has appeared in the form of a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs on countries other than China. We welcome it. But it is not enough. The...
