by Simona Mocuta | Feb 23, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Slowdown into year-end Following torrid growth in the second and third quarters, real GDP growth slowed markedly in the fourth under the combined influence of the government shutdown and a greatly diminished contribution from trade. Real GDP grew at a seasonally...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 17, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
It is rare that the two marquee macro reports for the US economy—the employment and inflation data—are released in the same week. They were this week, and, at least on the surface, offered divergent signals on the state of the economy and the desired monetary policy...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 2, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The Fed signals caution with two dissents for cuts Dovish hold, hawkish nomination? As widely anticipated, the FOMC held the Fed Funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% at the January meeting. Still, the decision was not without some surprises, the most important of which was...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 27, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The consumer buffer thins The concept of a K‑shaped economy has been percolating in macro commentaries for a while now, and with good reason. While strong wealth accumulation in the top income quartiles implies little downside risk to consumption in that space, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 20, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Mixed US data, including steady inflation and firm spending, supports a January Fed hold Mixed data say Fed hold None of the main data releases this week offered big surprises. Inflation came largely in line with expectations as headline CPI printed 2.7% (YoY) and...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 12, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Ongoing labor market softness The dense data fog that had descended upon the US economy due to the prolonged government shutdown is finally starting to lift. New labor market updates this week confirm a backdrop of softness without acute weakness. Nonfarm payroll...
