by Simona Mocuta | Feb 2, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The Fed signals caution with two dissents for cuts Dovish hold, hawkish nomination? As widely anticipated, the FOMC held the Fed Funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% at the January meeting. Still, the decision was not without some surprises, the most important of which was...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 27, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
The consumer buffer thins The concept of a K‑shaped economy has been percolating in macro commentaries for a while now, and with good reason. While strong wealth accumulation in the top income quartiles implies little downside risk to consumption in that space, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 20, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Mixed US data, including steady inflation and firm spending, supports a January Fed hold Mixed data say Fed hold None of the main data releases this week offered big surprises. Inflation came largely in line with expectations as headline CPI printed 2.7% (YoY) and...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 12, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Ongoing labor market softness The dense data fog that had descended upon the US economy due to the prolonged government shutdown is finally starting to lift. New labor market updates this week confirm a backdrop of softness without acute weakness. Nonfarm payroll...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 15, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Pleasantly surprised This entire year, we’ve maintained an upside‑to‑consensus view of global growth, and it turns out it hasn’t been optimistic enough. This round, we’ve made a further “mark to market” upgrade to global growth (up two-tenths to 3.0%) thanks to...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 1, 2025 | Economic Perspectives, Uncategorized
December cut fully priced after softer consumer data One must interpret current US macro updates with caution given the disruptions to data gathering associated with the government shutdown. Nevertheless, the totality of the releases this week sent a cautionary...
