by Simona Mocuta | Oct 14, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
This week’s economic outlook highlights US government layoffs amid a shutdown Not DOGE 2.0, but still a risk With the government shutdown heading into its second week, a number of key economic data releases—including the premier employment report—have been delayed....
by Simona Mocuta | Oct 6, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
US labor market indicators weaken amid a government shutdown Consistent messages of labor market softness Please see here our special commentary on the US government shutdown. We have been arguing for quite a while that the US labor market is not nearly as...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 29, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
US data remains resilient with bullish undertones for risk assets, as PCE inflation aligns with expectations. Undertones of resilience in US data Essentially every US data release this week came in stronger than anticipated. A big surge in new home sales in August, an...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 15, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Mixed inflation data, more troubling labor data There was some relief around the August inflation data, with CPI inflation coming in largely as expected and PPI inflation surprising to the downside (a welcome development). Headline CPI inflation rose two tenths to...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 8, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
There is not much new to say that we haven’t said in these pages over the last several months. Our long-held view that the labor market was softening was the basis for our similarly long-held call for three Fed rate cuts this year. Prior to the big downward revision...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 2, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The long wait for the resumption of Fed rate cuts may be soon over. Almost irrespective of the next payrolls report, there is enough softness in broader labor market data to warrant a modest reduction in the Fed Funds rate. Whatever objections there are to such a move...
