by Simona Mocuta | Sep 15, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Mixed inflation data, more troubling labor data There was some relief around the August inflation data, with CPI inflation coming in largely as expected and PPI inflation surprising to the downside (a welcome development). Headline CPI inflation rose two tenths to...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 8, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
There is not much new to say that we haven’t said in these pages over the last several months. Our long-held view that the labor market was softening was the basis for our similarly long-held call for three Fed rate cuts this year. Prior to the big downward revision...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 2, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The long wait for the resumption of Fed rate cuts may be soon over. Almost irrespective of the next payrolls report, there is enough softness in broader labor market data to warrant a modest reduction in the Fed Funds rate. Whatever objections there are to such a move...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 26, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is always acutely relevant for investors, and it proved so once again this year. There were always going to be two key parts to this: the short-term outlook, on one hand, and changes to the policy framework, on the...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 18, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The inflation updates for July have been mixed but remain perfectly compatible both with a Fed rate cut in September and further additional reductions. We maintain our long-standing call for 75-bp worth of rate cuts this year. July’s consumer price inflation was in...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 4, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
It wasn’t really a surprise, but it may well have been a mistake. The FOMC decided to once again leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, where it has been since December. But unlike prior hold decisions, this was not a unanimous one; it was anything but. Two...
