by Simona Mocuta | Jul 22, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
After two months of undershooting expectations, retail sales finally beat them in June. Admittedly, it was not such a high bar: consensus anticipated a 0.3% m/m drop in sales and they were flat instead. The May data was also revised modestly higher. Nevertheless, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 15, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The very good May inflation report was followed by an even better June inflation report, such that—if not for the unfortunate shift to a single rate cut in the June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections—a July cut might be a live possibility. As things stand, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 8, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Less than two months ago, the prevailing sentiment among many economic observers was that the US economy is “booming” and that high interest rates were doing little to restrain growth. A disappointing Q1 GDP print (and subsequent downward revisions) began putting a...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 18, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The latest round of inflation reports has led the Federal Reserve to lower expectations about potential rate cuts. But how long should the Fed wait? We share our views on why a first cut this summer remains our base case. A recent string of hotter-than-expected...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 16, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The hotter than expected February CPI data had faded the odds of a May rate cut. The hotter than expected March CPI data has greatly faded not only the odds of a June cut (with market odds now just 30%) but even threatened the likelihood of a July cut (market odds...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 8, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The US economy continues to generate jobs at a seemingly relentless pace as payrolls grew by a much better than expected 303k in March. The upside surprise was notable, yet in line with the labor market’s repeated outperformance of expectations in recent months. What...
