by Simona Mocuta | Sep 3, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
A rebound in expectations lifted the Conference Board consumer confidence index more than expected in August, but the details were fairly downbeat. The index gained 1.4 points to a six-month high of 103.3 as expectations rose to the highest in a year. However, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 26, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
It was an unusually light data week in the US, dominated by Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. It was a speech we could have written ourselves. Arguably, we have…not the words themselves, of course, but definitely the sentiments and views expressed...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 19, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The July inflation data was slightly better than expected, but there was enough there in the details to preclude too jubilant an interpretation. Indeed, the market reaction was very muted. Both overall and core (ex-food and energy) prices increased 0.2% m/m, allowing...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 22, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
After two months of undershooting expectations, retail sales finally beat them in June. Admittedly, it was not such a high bar: consensus anticipated a 0.3% m/m drop in sales and they were flat instead. The May data was also revised modestly higher. Nevertheless, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 15, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The very good May inflation report was followed by an even better June inflation report, such that—if not for the unfortunate shift to a single rate cut in the June FOMC Summary of Economic Projections—a July cut might be a live possibility. As things stand, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 8, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Less than two months ago, the prevailing sentiment among many economic observers was that the US economy is “booming” and that high interest rates were doing little to restrain growth. A disappointing Q1 GDP print (and subsequent downward revisions) began putting a...
