by Simona Mocuta | Oct 7, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
This year, the FOMC has repeatedly made the mistake of chasing monthly data one way or another. First, high inflation turned them super hawkish in the spring, then the rise in the unemployment rate over the summer months drove them into a 50-bp cut in September and an...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 18, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Small business sentiment fared worse than anticipated in August, more than retracing its July improvement. The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) index dropped 2.5 points to a three-month low of 91.2, but the real story wasn’t in the headline. It was...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 9, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Fed officials agree: “the […] data no longer requires patience, it requires action.” There was a lot of anxiety going into the release that the August payrolls report would flash a big red warning sign about the state of the US labor market and force the Fed into a...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 3, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
A rebound in expectations lifted the Conference Board consumer confidence index more than expected in August, but the details were fairly downbeat. The index gained 1.4 points to a six-month high of 103.3 as expectations rose to the highest in a year. However, the...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 26, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
It was an unusually light data week in the US, dominated by Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. It was a speech we could have written ourselves. Arguably, we have…not the words themselves, of course, but definitely the sentiments and views expressed...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 19, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The July inflation data was slightly better than expected, but there was enough there in the details to preclude too jubilant an interpretation. Indeed, the market reaction was very muted. Both overall and core (ex-food and energy) prices increased 0.2% m/m, allowing...
