by Simona Mocuta | Nov 4, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
This week’s US data was a study in contrasts. Third-quarter GDP data showed solid performance while the latest jobs data showed a clear cooling in the labor market, above and beyond hurricane and strikes impact. The combination should leave the Fed on track to...
by Simona Mocuta | Oct 28, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Since mid-September, 10-year yields have risen from 3.6% to over 4.2%. The intensifying war in the Middle East, resilient incoming domestic data, and market repricing of potentially more inflationary policies under a second term for President Trump, are all likely...
by Simona Mocuta | Oct 14, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Last month, we thought that the in-line August inflation print would lead the Fed to settle for a typical 25-basis point cut. Instead, it went for a larger 50-bp point reduction, mostly on account of a softening labor market. Such are the ironies of the data flow:...
by Simona Mocuta | Oct 7, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
This year, the FOMC has repeatedly made the mistake of chasing monthly data one way or another. First, high inflation turned them super hawkish in the spring, then the rise in the unemployment rate over the summer months drove them into a 50-bp cut in September and an...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 18, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Small business sentiment fared worse than anticipated in August, more than retracing its July improvement. The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) index dropped 2.5 points to a three-month low of 91.2, but the real story wasn’t in the headline. It was...
by Simona Mocuta | Sep 9, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Fed officials agree: “the […] data no longer requires patience, it requires action.” There was a lot of anxiety going into the release that the August payrolls report would flash a big red warning sign about the state of the US labor market and force the Fed into a...
