by Simona Mocuta | Mar 10, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Amid a slew of disappointing data releases and fever-pitch anxiety over tariff policy and DOGE actions, the February jobs report offered a welcome reprieve and a signal of resilience. It may not be worth a whole lot, however, given that relevant policy changes have...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 3, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
We have spent much of the last two months (including in a recent piece here) defending our increasingly out-of-consensus call for three Fed rate cuts in 2025. A series of recent data disappointments has brought market pricing much closer to that view. This, of...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 17, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The CPI inflation report for January came in much hotter than expected, but there were enough oddities in the details to argue for a more balanced interpretation. First, the bad news: overall prices rose 0.5% m/m, with core prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.4%...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 11, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
It is rare that in a payroll week the main focus of the conversation is not the US labor market, but tariffs are certainly stealing the thunder nowadays. The week began with imminent 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada…which were then both delayed for 30 days. 10%...
by Simona Mocuta | Feb 4, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The US economy grew 2.3% saar (q/q, seasonally adjusted annualized) in Q4, slightly below expectations. What was surprising was not the top line number, but the details. Consumer spending was exceedingly strong, equipment investment surprisingly soft, and inventory...
by Simona Mocuta | Jan 20, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Last month, we said that the December inflation report “argued vigilance, not panic, on inflation”. And we concluded that three rate cuts in 2025 still made sense as a baseline expectation. That remained our view even in the aftermath of the hawkish December dot plot...
