by Simona Mocuta | Aug 26, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The Fed Chair’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is always acutely relevant for investors, and it proved so once again this year. There were always going to be two key parts to this: the short-term outlook, on one hand, and changes to the policy framework, on the...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 18, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The inflation updates for July have been mixed but remain perfectly compatible both with a Fed rate cut in September and further additional reductions. We maintain our long-standing call for 75-bp worth of rate cuts this year. July’s consumer price inflation was in...
by Simona Mocuta | Aug 4, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
It wasn’t really a surprise, but it may well have been a mistake. The FOMC decided to once again leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, where it has been since December. But unlike prior hold decisions, this was not a unanimous one; it was anything but. Two...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 21, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The Fed remains on hold amid modest inflation gains and political noise around Chair Powell. Fed on hold for now, but not for much longer The June CPI data was the week’s main macro data event, but it was overshadowed by speculation around the search for the next Fed...
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 14, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The One Big Beautiful Bill brings tax clarity amid global trade uncertainty. The big beautiful bill is now law The signing into law of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) marks the second most important economic policy development since the April 2 tariff announcements....
by Simona Mocuta | Jul 9, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Stronger US jobs data dims July rate cut hopes. It is turning into a bit of a pattern: a payroll report that bests expectations on headline, but with weak details. This was certainly the case in May, when solid employment gains during that month were accompanied by a...
