by Simona Mocuta | Dec 15, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Pleasantly surprised This entire year, we’ve maintained an upside‑to‑consensus view of global growth, and it turns out it hasn’t been optimistic enough. This round, we’ve made a further “mark to market” upgrade to global growth (up two-tenths to 3.0%) thanks to...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 1, 2025 | Economic Perspectives, Uncategorized
December cut fully priced after softer consumer data One must interpret current US macro updates with caution given the disruptions to data gathering associated with the government shutdown. Nevertheless, the totality of the releases this week sent a cautionary...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 25, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Fake resilience is how we would describe the September payrolls report, released more than a month after the originally scheduled date. The economy added a better-than-expected 119k jobs, though this was accompanied by another downward revision (-33k) to the prior two...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 17, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
More anxiety, but not more data The longest US government shutdown on record has finally ended, but it will take some time before the flow of statistical data releases resumes. When it does, it will initially be beset by unusual limitations. For instance, we should...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 10, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Layoffs say caution, not panic While the government shutdown continued, there has been a welcome uptick in the number of macro data updates during the week of November 3. The messages were mixed. On the upside, the ISM non-manufacturing index came in stronger than...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 3, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
December cut not guaranteed, but likely The FOMC delivered another 25 bp rate cut this week, as was widely expected. That came with some hawkish strings attached, however, as Chair Powell made it a point to emphasize during the press conference that another reduction...
