by Simona Mocuta | Apr 14, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Last week, we said that our “no recession” call was hanging by a thread amid the tariff onslaught. This week, a new lifeline has appeared in the form of a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs on countries other than China. We welcome it. But it is not enough. The...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 8, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
New tariffs announced on April 2 leave the average US tariff rate at the highest level in a century (18.8% based on Tax Foundation estimates). The market reaction has been powerful but orderly so far, with risk assets globally sharply lower and bond yield falling. An...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 17, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The February inflation data was, on the margin, better than expected, and so was the January JOLTS report. However, both data points have diminished relevance amid the onslaught of policy changes—tariffs and government layoffs—that have the potential to shift the...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 10, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Amid a slew of disappointing data releases and fever-pitch anxiety over tariff policy and DOGE actions, the February jobs report offered a welcome reprieve and a signal of resilience. It may not be worth a whole lot, however, given that relevant policy changes have...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 3, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
We have spent much of the last two months (including in a recent piece here) defending our increasingly out-of-consensus call for three Fed rate cuts in 2025. A series of recent data disappointments has brought market pricing much closer to that view. This, of...
