by Simona Mocuta | Nov 19, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The consumer price data for October came in as expected, with overall prices rising 0.2% m/m and core prices (ex food and energy) up 0.3% m/m. This lifted the headline inflation rate by two tenths to 2.6% y/y while leaving the core inflation rate unchanged at 3.3%...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 12, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
It is rare that a Fed meeting is not the main event during the week of its occurrence. But, when competing with general elections—as it did this round—there is no contest. So, the Fed’s well-anticipated 25-basis point cut had little impact on markets. The big moves...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 4, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
This week’s US data was a study in contrasts. Third-quarter GDP data showed solid performance while the latest jobs data showed a clear cooling in the labor market, above and beyond hurricane and strikes impact. The combination should leave the Fed on track to...
by Simona Mocuta | Oct 28, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Since mid-September, 10-year yields have risen from 3.6% to over 4.2%. The intensifying war in the Middle East, resilient incoming domestic data, and market repricing of potentially more inflationary policies under a second term for President Trump, are all likely...
by Simona Mocuta | Oct 14, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Last month, we thought that the in-line August inflation print would lead the Fed to settle for a typical 25-basis point cut. Instead, it went for a larger 50-bp point reduction, mostly on account of a softening labor market. Such are the ironies of the data flow:...
