by Simona Mocuta | May 12, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
We maintain our call for three cuts this year—75 bp worth of cuts—but we have pushed the first cut from June to July. Fed Is Attentively on Hold Sometimes, when things are just too complicated, the decision becomes simpler: do nothing, wait. That’s where the Fed...
by Simona Mocuta | May 5, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The US economy contracted at a 0.3% seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) pace in the first quarter, the first such decline since the start of 2022. Given the massive crosscurrents at play, the outcome was impressively close to consensus expectations (-0.2% saar). It...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 14, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Last week, we said that our “no recession” call was hanging by a thread amid the tariff onslaught. This week, a new lifeline has appeared in the form of a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs on countries other than China. We welcome it. But it is not enough. The...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 8, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
New tariffs announced on April 2 leave the average US tariff rate at the highest level in a century (18.8% based on Tax Foundation estimates). The market reaction has been powerful but orderly so far, with risk assets globally sharply lower and bond yield falling. An...
by Simona Mocuta | Mar 17, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
The February inflation data was, on the margin, better than expected, and so was the January JOLTS report. However, both data points have diminished relevance amid the onslaught of policy changes—tariffs and government layoffs—that have the potential to shift the...
