by Simona Mocuta | Jan 12, 2026 | Economic Perspectives
Ongoing labor market softness The dense data fog that had descended upon the US economy due to the prolonged government shutdown is finally starting to lift. New labor market updates this week confirm a backdrop of softness without acute weakness. Nonfarm payroll...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 15, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Pleasantly surprised This entire year, we’ve maintained an upside‑to‑consensus view of global growth, and it turns out it hasn’t been optimistic enough. This round, we’ve made a further “mark to market” upgrade to global growth (up two-tenths to 3.0%) thanks to...
by Simona Mocuta | Dec 1, 2025 | Economic Perspectives, Uncategorized
December cut fully priced after softer consumer data One must interpret current US macro updates with caution given the disruptions to data gathering associated with the government shutdown. Nevertheless, the totality of the releases this week sent a cautionary...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 25, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
Fake resilience is how we would describe the September payrolls report, released more than a month after the originally scheduled date. The economy added a better-than-expected 119k jobs, though this was accompanied by another downward revision (-33k) to the prior two...
by Simona Mocuta | Nov 17, 2025 | Economic Perspectives
More anxiety, but not more data The longest US government shutdown on record has finally ended, but it will take some time before the flow of statistical data releases resumes. When it does, it will initially be beset by unusual limitations. For instance, we should...
