by Simona Mocuta | Apr 18, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The latest round of inflation reports has led the Federal Reserve to lower expectations about potential rate cuts. But how long should the Fed wait? We share our views on why a first cut this summer remains our base case. A recent string of hotter-than-expected...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 16, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The hotter than expected February CPI data had faded the odds of a May rate cut. The hotter than expected March CPI data has greatly faded not only the odds of a June cut (with market odds now just 30%) but even threatened the likelihood of a July cut (market odds...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 8, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
The US economy continues to generate jobs at a seemingly relentless pace as payrolls grew by a much better than expected 303k in March. The upside surprise was notable, yet in line with the labor market’s repeated outperformance of expectations in recent months. What...
by Simona Mocuta | Apr 4, 2024 | Economic Perspectives
Inflation and geopolitical fears continue to dominate market action. In the midst of a veritable “tsunami of hawkishness”, our latest opinion piece is a reminder that US inflation and labor market dynamics are in a very different place than they were a year ago. Don’t...
