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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

We raise our global growth forecasts

We raise our global growth forecasts

Pleasantly surprised This entire year, we’ve maintained an upside‑to‑consensus view of global growth, and it turns out it hasn’t been optimistic enough. This round, we’ve made a further “mark to...

US retail sales and confidence weaken

US retail sales and confidence weaken

December cut fully priced after softer consumer data One must interpret current US macro updates with caution given the disruptions to data gathering associated with the government shutdown....

US payrolls data feels like fake resilience

US payrolls data feels like fake resilience

Fake resilience is how we would describe the September payrolls report, released more than a month after the originally scheduled date. The economy added a better-than-expected 119k jobs, though...

US rate cut likely despite growing doubts
US rate cut likely despite growing doubts

More anxiety, but not more data The longest US government shutdown on record has finally ended, but it will take some time before the flow of statistical data releases resumes. When it does, it will initially be beset by unusual limitations. For instance, we should...

US labor market softens, Fed rate cut likely in December
US labor market softens, Fed rate cut likely in December

Layoffs say caution, not panic While the government shutdown continued, there has been a welcome uptick in the number of macro data updates during the week of November 3. The messages were mixed. On the upside, the ISM non-manufacturing index came in stronger than...

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