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Misleading Payrolls Strength?

For anyone who was hoping to ease into the macro data releases of the new year, the December employment report certainly did not offer such opportunity. Reported job gains totaled 256k, far above the 165k consensus. Revisions to the prior two months were...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

No Need For Fed To Skip December Cut

No Need For Fed To Skip December Cut

The consumer price data for October came in as expected, with overall prices rising 0.2% m/m and core prices (ex food and energy) up 0.3% m/m. This lifted the headline inflation rate by two tenths...

Hot and Cold

Hot and Cold

This week’s US data was a study in contrasts. Third-quarter GDP data showed solid performance while the latest jobs data showed a clear cooling in the labor market, above and beyond hurricane and...

Data Fluctuates, Policy Should Not
Data Fluctuates, Policy Should Not

Last month, we thought that the in-line August inflation print would lead the Fed to settle for a typical 25-basis point cut. Instead, it went for a larger 50-bp point reduction, mostly on account of a softening labor market. Such are the ironies of the data flow:...

US Labor Market Resilience
US Labor Market Resilience

This year, the FOMC has repeatedly made the mistake of chasing monthly data one way or another. First, high inflation turned them super hawkish in the spring, then the rise in the unemployment rate over the summer months drove them into a 50-bp cut in September and an...

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