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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

FOMC To Ease But Signal Fewer Cuts in 2025

FOMC To Ease But Signal Fewer Cuts in 2025

The last inflation report before year-end cemented market expectations of another Fed rate cut at the December 18 meeting. This had long been our view, even as doubts grew around its...

US Labor Market Argues for December Rate Cut

US Labor Market Argues for December Rate Cut

There was a lot of anxious anticipation ahead of the November employment report given this was supposed to provide a cleaner view of the labor market health following a very weak weather-distorted...

Shifting Sands in US Housing Market

Shifting Sands in US Housing Market

Amid the high mortgage rates of the past couple of years, whatever meager housing market activity still occurred was heavily concentrated in the new home segment. This was a space where builders had...

Tariffs Are an Active Threat to Both Sides of Dual Mandate
Tariffs Are an Active Threat to Both Sides of Dual Mandate

New tariffs announced on April 2 leave the average US tariff rate at the highest level in a century (18.8% based on Tax Foundation estimates). The market reaction has been powerful but orderly so far, with risk assets globally sharply lower and bond yield falling. An...

Current Data Less Relevant Amid Changes
Current Data Less Relevant Amid Changes

The February inflation data was, on the margin, better than expected, and so was the January JOLTS report. However, both data points have diminished relevance amid the onslaught of policy changes—tariffs and government layoffs—that have the potential to shift the...

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