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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

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The Problem With Too Long of a Fed Delay?

The latest round of inflation reports has led the Federal Reserve to lower expectations about potential rate cuts. But how long should the Fed wait? We share our views on why a first cut this summer remains our base case. A recent string of hotter-than-expected...

Inflation Report Surprises Fade Rate Cut Prospects

The hotter than expected February CPI data had faded the odds of a May rate cut. The hotter than expected March CPI data has greatly faded not only the odds of a June cut (with market odds now just 30%) but even threatened the likelihood of a July cut (market odds...

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