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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

US consumer buffer continues to thin

US consumer buffer continues to thin

The consumer buffer thins The concept of a K‑shaped economy has been percolating in macro commentaries for a while now, and with good reason. While strong wealth accumulation in the top income...

Fed set for January hold

Fed set for January hold

Mixed US data, including steady inflation and firm spending, supports a January Fed hold Mixed data say Fed hold None of the main data releases this week offered big surprises. Inflation came...

US labor soft, but no acute stress

US labor soft, but no acute stress

Ongoing labor market softness The dense data fog that had descended upon the US economy due to the prolonged government shutdown is finally starting to lift. New labor market updates this week...

US retail sales and confidence weaken
US retail sales and confidence weaken

December cut fully priced after softer consumer data One must interpret current US macro updates with caution given the disruptions to data gathering associated with the government shutdown. Nevertheless, the totality of the releases this week sent a cautionary...

US payrolls data feels like fake resilience
US payrolls data feels like fake resilience

Fake resilience is how we would describe the September payrolls report, released more than a month after the originally scheduled date. The economy added a better-than-expected 119k jobs, though this was accompanied by another downward revision (-33k) to the prior two...

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