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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

Black Sheep of US Macro Proves Economy Slowing

Black Sheep of US Macro Proves Economy Slowing

Small business sentiment fared worse than anticipated in August, more than retracing its July improvement. The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) index dropped 2.5 points to a...

US Jobs Report Not Bad Enough

US Jobs Report Not Bad Enough

Fed officials agree: “the […] data no longer requires patience, it requires action.” There was a lot of anxiety going into the release that the August payrolls report would flash a big red warning...

US Personal Savings Rate Dips Again

US Personal Savings Rate Dips Again

A rebound in expectations lifted the Conference Board consumer confidence index more than expected in August, but the details were fairly downbeat. The index gained 1.4 points to a six-month high of...

Strong Economy, Cautious Fed
Strong Economy, Cautious Fed

The US economy grew 2.3% saar (q/q, seasonally adjusted annualized) in Q4, slightly below expectations. What was surprising was not the top line number, but the details. Consumer spending was exceedingly strong, equipment investment surprisingly soft, and inventory...

Misleading Strength?
Misleading Strength?

Last month, we said that the December inflation report “argued vigilance, not panic, on inflation”. And we concluded that three rate cuts in 2025 still made sense as a baseline expectation. That remained our view even in the aftermath of the hawkish December dot plot...

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