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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

Rates Volatility Stalls Housing Revival

Rates Volatility Stalls Housing Revival

Since mid-September, 10-year yields have risen from 3.6% to over 4.2%. The intensifying war in the Middle East, resilient incoming domestic data, and market repricing of potentially more...

Data Fluctuates, Policy Should Not

Data Fluctuates, Policy Should Not

Last month, we thought that the in-line August inflation print would lead the Fed to settle for a typical 25-basis point cut. Instead, it went for a larger 50-bp point reduction, mostly on account...

US Labor Market Resilience

US Labor Market Resilience

This year, the FOMC has repeatedly made the mistake of chasing monthly data one way or another. First, high inflation turned them super hawkish in the spring, then the rise in the unemployment rate...

Inflation Ebb and Flow
Inflation Ebb and Flow

The CPI inflation report for January came in much hotter than expected, but there were enough oddities in the details to argue for a more balanced interpretation. First, the bad news: overall prices rose 0.5% m/m, with core prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.4%...

Consumers Do Not Like Tariffs!
Consumers Do Not Like Tariffs!

It is rare that in a payroll week the main focus of the conversation is not the US labor market, but tariffs are certainly stealing the thunder nowadays. The week began with imminent 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada…which were then both delayed for 30 days. 10%...

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