Market News

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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

Strong Economy, Cautious Fed

Strong Economy, Cautious Fed

The US economy grew 2.3% saar (q/q, seasonally adjusted annualized) in Q4, slightly below expectations. What was surprising was not the top line number, but the details. Consumer spending was...

Misleading Strength?

Misleading Strength?

Last month, we said that the December inflation report “argued vigilance, not panic, on inflation”. And we concluded that three rate cuts in 2025 still made sense as a baseline expectation. That...

Misleading Payrolls Strength?

Misleading Payrolls Strength?

For anyone who was hoping to ease into the macro data releases of the new year, the December employment report certainly did not offer such opportunity. Reported job gains totaled 256k, far above...

Tariff Détente Does Not Go Far Enough
Tariff Détente Does Not Go Far Enough

Last week, we said that our “no recession” call was hanging by a thread amid the tariff onslaught. This week, a new lifeline has appeared in the form of a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs on countries other than China. We welcome it. But it is not enough. The...

Cash Is Both Shield and Sword
Cash Is Both Shield and Sword

The current politics crises again point to the importance of clever cash investing. Historically, those who maintained unleveraged positions and proactively de-risked their portfolios were the ones best positioned to endure market turmoil and emerge stronger on the...

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