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Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A
As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:
Market News
Neither Invincible, Nor Broken
We have spent much of the last two months (including in a recent piece here) defending our increasingly out-of-consensus call for three Fed rate cuts in 2025. A series of recent data disappointments...
Inflation Ebb and Flow
The CPI inflation report for January came in much hotter than expected, but there were enough oddities in the details to argue for a more balanced interpretation. First, the bad news: overall prices...
Consumers Do Not Like Tariffs!
It is rare that in a payroll week the main focus of the conversation is not the US labor market, but tariffs are certainly stealing the thunder nowadays. The week began with imminent 25% tariffs on...
Next Fed Cut Could Be in July, Not June
We maintain our call for three cuts this year—75 bp worth of cuts—but we have pushed the first cut from June to July. Fed Is Attentively on Hold Sometimes, when things are just too complicated, the decision becomes simpler: do nothing, wait. That's where the Fed is...
Big Distortions in Q1 GDP
The US economy contracted at a 0.3% seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) pace in the first quarter, the first such decline since the start of 2022. Given the massive crosscurrents at play, the outcome was impressively close to consensus expectations (-0.2% saar). It...
