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US industry shows signs of revival

Industrial revival afoot Over the last several months, we’ve highlighted three main “sub-plots” in the broader US macro narrative: resilient growth, gradually easing inflation, and softening labor market. To these, we can perhaps add another: a gradual yet...

CalTRUST Update

Post Federal Reserve Meeting Q&A

As part of our initiative to bring timely market information to California public agencies, CalTRUST Chief Executive Officer Laura Labanieh had a brief Q&A with State Street Global Advisors’ Vice President, Portfolio Strategist Will Goldthwait to reflect on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting:

Market News

Big Distortions in Q1 GDP

Big Distortions in Q1 GDP

The US economy contracted at a 0.3% seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) pace in the first quarter, the first such decline since the start of 2022. Given the massive crosscurrents at play, the...

Tariff Détente Does Not Go Far Enough

Tariff Détente Does Not Go Far Enough

Last week, we said that our “no recession” call was hanging by a thread amid the tariff onslaught. This week, a new lifeline has appeared in the form of a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs on...

Cash Is Both Shield and Sword

Cash Is Both Shield and Sword

The current politics crises again point to the importance of clever cash investing. Historically, those who maintained unleveraged positions and proactively de-risked their portfolios were the ones...

July rate cut unlikely
July rate cut unlikely

Stronger US jobs data dims July rate cut hopes. It is turning into a bit of a pattern: a payroll report that bests expectations on headline, but with weak details. This was certainly the case in May, when solid employment gains during that month were accompanied by a...

Mixed Signals in Latest Data
Mixed Signals in Latest Data

Unsurprisingly, US macro data continues to send mixed messages. Consumer sentiment improved following tariff relief, but personal spending cooled as consumers took a break following a torrid spending month in March. The labor market appears Unsurprisingly, US macro...

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